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It\u2019s a low time for higher education, depending on where you look.<\/p>\n
In recent years, dozens of colleges and universities have closed their doors<\/a>, and dozens more have merged in an attempt to survive. There are many factors that are leading to these closures, but it typically comes down to a lethal combination of increasing costs and lower enrollment. Smaller private schools are finding themselves in harm\u2019s way, and it\u2019s become worse over the past five years.<\/p>\n Conversely, other schools are thriving and becoming increasingly selective. Vanderbilt University, for instance, recently announced an acceptance rate of 2.8%<\/a> out of a pool of nearly 49,000 applicants. For context, its acceptance rate was almost 33%<\/a> in 2007.\u00a0<\/p>\n Other top-tier schools are seeing similar low acceptance rates, including Duke University, Brown University, and Dartmouth College. And some small liberal arts schools, such as Bowdoin College and Williams College, are also notching record-low acceptance rates, writes Christopher Rim, the CEO of Command Education, in a recent article<\/a> published by Forbes<\/em>.<\/p>\n In effect, there\u2019s a divergence occurring in higher education: Prestigious, top-tier colleges and universities are pulling away from smaller, more modest institutions, creating a K-shaped split. <\/p>\n Michael Koppenheffer<\/a>, who leads marketing strategy, creative execution, and analytics for the Enroll360 division at EAB, an educational consulting company, says this observation is, by and large, \u201can accurate description of what\u2019s going on.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFor the past many years, we\u2019ve seen a shift in demand toward national universities, larger universities, and more prestigious brands,\u201d he says, and \u201cthere\u2019s no single cause for it.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Among the potential factors, though, is that there\u2019s more information about schools available to students than ever before, which may be drawing some far-flung applicants to more national brands than in years past. Other schools are losing potential students to employers straight out of high school. And tuition costs are a huge deciding factor, too.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you think of today\u2019s teenagers, their parents are the first ones to experience a significant student loan burden\u2014two generations ago, people did not have significant student debts,\u201d Koppenheffer says. \u201cThese kids are growing up with parents who have been paying for a long time and have an increased sensitivity to cost.\u201d<\/p>\n Those costs are no joke. As of 2025, the average borrower had more than $39,000<\/a> in federal student loan debt. Average college costs have also more than doubled since 2000, and typical annual expenses tally more than $38,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n So, students who are going to be spending or borrowing that much money are looking for a return on that investment\u2014and Koppenheffer says that \u201csome students and families view national brands as more secure investments.\u201d In other words, if you\u2019re going to pay that much to go to school, you may as well get a degree from a brand-name institution.<\/p>\n Sara Harberson, a college admissions expert and former dean of admissions, agrees that there are many factors leading to a higher-ed split. But she notes that it\u2019s not merely esteemed private schools that are on an upward trajectory. A number of large, public flagship state schools are seeing a huge influx of students as well.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re seeing a generation of students that want something different from previous college-bound generations,\u201d she says. \u201cThey want big schools, social schools, schools in warmer climates, more balance between their academic and social life, strong athletic programs\u2014the whole experience.”<\/p>\n As such, schools like Auburn University, the University of Georgia, and the University of Tennessee have become hugely popular\u2014and much more selective.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen a college is seeing an influx of applicants, it can be more selective in its admissions process,” Harberson explains. “We\u2019re seeing some of those nationally known institutions see record numbers of applicants each year, and their acceptance rate is dropping.”<\/p>\n This could be fueling the K-shaped college divergence, too. Students who, years ago, may have wanted to go to a small, private university in upstate New York, for example, might prefer going to a large public school in Florida or Georgia instead.<\/p>\n However, Harberson says that doesn\u2019t mean that families aren\u2019t still focused on \u201cprestige.\u201d That\u2019s why schools like Vanderbilt and Duke, perhaps more so than others, are in the perfect position to thrive: They\u2019re in the South, associated with strong athletics programs or conferences, and highly regarded in terms of academics. They\u2019re perfectly positioned to cater to students who want a broader college experience, but also to earn a degree from an elite institution.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s like the phenomenon of being popular in school,\u201d Harberson says. \u201cRight now, those Southern schools are the popular kids.\u201d<\/p>\nA higher-ed divergence<\/h2>\n
Go South, young man?<\/h2>\n