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CHONGQING, CHINA – JULY 26: In this photo illustration, metal cubes representing rare earth elements including Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Dysprosium (Dy), Terbium (Tb), and othersare displayed with their symbols and atomic numbers on overlapping flags of the United States and China on July 26, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n Getty Images<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n When tensions in the Middle East escalated this spring, the Strait of Hormuz turned into a focal point of global concern. Oil prices surged, markets tightened. Governments scrambled to assess exposure.<\/p>\n Roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade passes through this narrow corridor. Any disruption would be felt instantly across the global economy. So much so that the International Energy Agency (IEA) described the situation as the \u201cgreatest global energy security challenge in history.\u201d1<\/sup><\/p>\n For many, this only reinforces the case for accelerating the clean energy transition. <\/p>\n Renewable energy sources are largely independent of fuel price fluctuations, offering a more stable and lower-cost base. Countries with higher shares of clean electricity and electrified end uses are already proving more resilient to current fuel price shocks.2<\/sup><\/p>\n But that is only half of the picture.<\/p>\n A MarineTraffic map showing ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz is pictured through a magnifying glass in this photo illustration, as commercial vessel traffic through the key oil shipping lane drops sharply amid the escalating conflict involving Iran. Taken in Brussels, Belgium, on March 15, 2026. (Photo by Jonathan Raa\/NurPhoto via Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n NurPhoto via Getty Images<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Chokepoints like Hormuz are not just affecting fossil fuel flows. They also disrupt the industrial inputs needed to build clean technologies.<\/p>\n Nearly half of global seaborne sulfur trade passes through the Strait, with sulfur playing a critical role in processing nickel and cobalt for EV batteries. At the same time, supply constraints are affecting aluminum \u2013 around 9% of global production<\/a> originates in the Middle East \u2013 which is widely used across renewable infrastructure, as well as graphite feedstocks essential for battery anodes. 3<\/sup><\/p>\n As electrification accelerates, so does demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements. The IEA estimates that demand for these materials could more than triple by 2040<\/a>.<\/p>\n TO GO WITH China-Japan-technology-commodities FOCUS by D’Arcy Doran In a picture taken on September 5, 2010 a man driving a front loader shifts soil containing rare earth minerals to be loaded at a port in Lianyungang, east China’s Jiangsu province, for export to Japan. China’s restrictions on exports of rare earths are aimed at maximising profit, strengthening its homegrown high-tech companies and forcing other nations to help sustain global supply, experts say. China last year produced 97 percent of the global supply of rare earths \u2014 a group of 17 elements used in high-tech products ranging from flat-screen televisions to iPods to hybrid cars \u2014 but is home to just a third of reserves. CHINA OUT AFP PHOTO (Photo credit should read STR\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n AFP via Getty Images<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n These supply chains are among the most geographically concentrated of any global industry. <\/p>\n In many cases, a small number of countries dominate not only extraction, but processing and refining. China, in particular, has spent decades building a strategic position across these value chains. Today, it accounts for around 60% of global rare earth mining and as much as 90% of processing capacity. In some downstream segments, its dominance is even more pronounced: around 95% of global permanent magnets are produced in China, up from roughly 50% just two decades ago.4<\/sup><\/p>\n In other words, the transition does not eliminate dependency \u2013 it redistributes it. From oil to minerals. <\/p>\n A worker at Fortech company shows metals recycled from electric car batteries in Cartago, Costa Rica,on February 20, 2023. – The Fortech company in Costa Rica recycles lithium batteries from telephones, computers, electric cars and other items to sell the resulting materials for the construction of new batteries. (Photo by Ezequiel BECERRA \/ AFP) (Photo by EZEQUIEL BECERRA\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n AFP via Getty Images<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n If the transition is becoming more material-intensive, reducing pressure on primary supply becomes critical. One of the most immediate levers is circularity.<\/p>\n Recycling and reusing materials already in circulation can significantly reduce reliance on new extraction, potentially lowering primary demand for critical minerals by up to 35% by 2035<\/a>. <\/p>\n Current recycling rates remain far below their potential. For key materials such as nickel, copper and aluminum, they stand at around 40%<\/a>, despite technical potential exceeding 90%. Unlocking this gap will depend on innovations, both to increase recovery rates and to make recycling processes more efficient and economically viable.<\/p>\n Recovered materials \u2013 from batteries, industrial waste and end-of-life technologies \u2013 can form a secondary supply base that is more localized and less exposed to geopolitical disruption.<\/p>\n As argued previously, circularity can reduce geopolitical risk by lowering exposure to volatile global supply chains without changing underlying material demand.<\/p>\n But circularity does not fundamentally change what the system depends on.<\/p>\n laboratory specialist examines the data obtained on a special apparatus for analyzing samples Close-up portrait<\/span><\/p>\n getty<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n This is where innovation in materials and chemistry becomes strategic.<\/p>\n New battery technologies are already reducing reliance on scarce inputs such as cobalt and nickel. At the same time, alternative materials \u2013 from advanced carbon-based compounds to bio-based inputs \u2013 are beginning to reshape supply chains at their core.<\/p>\n In some cases, substitution is moving from concept to reality. Graphene-based materials<\/a> are being explored as alternatives to traditional battery components, while nanocoating and new electrolysis technologies<\/a> are reducing dependence on scarce metals such as iridium or platinum. Biological materials like lignin<\/a> are also entering the equation, opening new avenues for material innovation rooted in abundant, renewable sources.<\/p>\n This is also where a new wave of startups is translating advances in chemistry into industrial applications. Sublime Systems, for example, is rethinking cement production by redesigning the process around more abundant feedstocks and simpler supply chains, while also co-producing critical minerals. Others are targeting strategic materials more directly: Kore Metals* is developing electrolysis-based processes to produce high-purity silicon from abundant silica, pointing to a more localized and resilient supply chain.<\/p>\n For regions with limited domestic resources, like Europe, this represents a strategic opportunity. Competing on raw material extraction will remain challenging, but competing on substitution, efficiency and advanced materials offers a different pathway to resilience.<\/p>\n WASHINGTON, DC – FEBRUARY 04: US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the first Critical Minerals Ministerial in the Loy Henderson Conference Room at the State Department’s Harry S. Truman Building on February 04, 2026 in Washington, DC. About 50 countries attended the ministerial, a gathering to discuss the creation of tech supply chain partnerships that can bypass China. The United States has been looking for alternative sources for rare earth minerals since Beijing cut the U.S. off from its supply last year. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n Getty Images<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Governments are increasingly treating access to critical materials as a strategic issue.<\/p>\nClean Energy Still Depends on Global Supply Chains<\/h2>\n
A More Concentrated, Less Visible Risk<\/h2>\n
Circularity Can Reduce Pressure<\/h2>\n
Alternative and Advanced Materials: Reducing Dependency At The Source<\/h2>\n
Policy Is Starting to Catch Up <\/h2>\n