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El Ni\u00f1o is “likely to emerge soon” with an 82% chance of it starting as early as this month into July, and with a 96% chance it will continue from December into February 2027, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.<\/a><\/p>\n The report<\/a>, out Thursday, says while there is “still substantial\u00a0uncertainty<\/a> about El Ni\u00f1o’s peak strength<\/a>” this hurricane season\u2014and it’s too early to tell\u2014the summer outlook does seem ripe for the possibility of creating “very strong<\/a>” conditions later, as “the strongest El Ni\u00f1o events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer.”<\/p>\n In addition, NOAA says<\/a> 2026 is already shaping up to be among the warmest on record, with last month ranking as the fourth-warmest April since global records began in 1850.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is a complex weather pattern<\/a> that refers to the warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures<\/a>, in the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n Winds that normally blow west to east weaken, and in some cases blow east, disrupting normal weather and creating more extreme meteorological events, per the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). As the winds “take warm water from South America towards Asia<\/a>,” that’s replaced by cold water that rises up, or “upwelling,” according to NOAA.<\/p>\n The impact<\/a> can be global, and not only intensify storms and flooding, particularly in the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast, but also create wildfires and drought<\/a>. The 2015 Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> caused a significant Caribbean drought.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o typically lasts nine to 12 months, and occurs an average of every two to seven years<\/a>.<\/p>\n The term El Ni\u00f1o, which means “little boy” in Spanish, was first coined by a South American fisherman who noticed unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s, according to<\/a> NOAA.<\/p>\nWhat is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n