Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices\u2014as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index\u2014will shift down 0.1% from April 2026 to April 2027.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a tiny downward revision from its 12-month national forecast published in April (+0.1%) and its 12-month national forecast published in March (+0.5%).<\/p>\n
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up 0.7% year over year<\/a>. Zillow\u2019s latest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace. As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. wage growth<\/a> (currently up 3.6%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve. If that trend continues\u2014and mortgage rates don\u2019t spike\u2014national housing affordability should also continue to gradually improve.<\/p>\n While Zillow\u2019s national home price forecast isn\u2019t negative\u2014it isn\u2019t exactly bullish either. It\u2019s calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.<\/p>\n What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the next 12 months?<\/p>\n (function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})();<\/p>\n Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price increase from April 2026 to April 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:<\/p>\n Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price decline from April 2026 to April 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:<\/p>\n My quick take: Based on my own analysis, I believe Zillow is too bearish on the New Orleans metro-area housing market\u2014which is showing signs of mild tightening after passing through a correction\u2014and also too bearish on pockets of the Bay Area, especially San Francisco proper, which has benefited from AI boom spillover (although pockets of Oakland remain weak).<\/p>\n Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price change looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sunbelt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market softness over the past year.<\/p>\n (function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(`message`,function(e){if(e.data[`datawrapper-height`]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(`iframe`);for(var n in e.data[`datawrapper-height`])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[`datawrapper-height`][n]+`px`;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})();<\/p>\n\n
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