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We know the planet is getting hotter, but some of the grim details about what exactly that means for humanity remain a mystery.<\/p>\n
Researchers are racing to peer into the not-too-distant future of the climate crisis to better prepare us for the worst-case scenarios to come. A new climate study<\/a> published on Tuesday found that by 2040, overwhelming urban heat and spiking temperatures in the U.S. could double the number of people hospitalized with heat-related illnesses (HRIs). Using advanced modeling, the researchers predicted that HRIs could result in 217,000 hospitalizations by 2040 in a low-emissions scenario and as many as 237,000 if emissions soar. In both scenarios, heat-related hospitalizations would double.\u00a0<\/p>\n According to the new paper, published by Portland State University professor Vivek Shandas and Stephan Brown of the climate adaptation group CAPA Strategies, the life-threatening risks associated with extreme heat won\u2019t affect Americans evenly\u2014and the sooner we can predict those differences, the better we can mitigate the danger.<\/p>\n \u201cDespite growing concerns about the negative health impacts from extreme heat, we still know relatively little about how, and to what extent, increases in temperatures, particularly in cities where the majority of humans live and where the built environment amplifies temperatures, interact with co-mediating factors such as demographics, health status, and cooling options to drive [heat-related illnesses],\u201d the authors wrote.<\/p>\n The researchers chose 53 major metro areas in the U.S. for their statistical sample, grouping them by geographic region to see how populations across different parts of the country will be impacted by extreme heat. That created nine regions for modeling purposes: the Northeast, the Northern Rockies and Plains, the Northwest, the Ohio Valley, the South, the Southeast, the Southwest, the Upper Midwest, and the West. Across those regions, heat, humidity, and weather patterns vary widely, as do population center demographics. <\/p>\n The researchers also modeled how health outcomes on a warming planet will reflect people of different races based on where they live in the country. They found that heat-related illness will unevenly impact different racial groups, but those disparities could be very pronounced in some regions and much less dramatic in others.<\/p>\n \u201cIn terms of magnitude of disparities across the four race groups, the Northeast, Ohio Valley, South, Southwest and, to a lesser extent, West regions exhibited the largest disparities, with the highest risk group experiencing [heat-related illnesses] at a rate roughly 12 times (Ohio Valley) to over 57 times (Southwest) that of the lowest risk group,\u201d the authors wrote. \u201cWhile these regional differences are notable, White populations, apart from the Upper Midwest, have consistently had among the lowest HRI rates across regions and over time.\u201d<\/p>\n Granular predictions about how HRIs will be distributed around the country can shape interventions now, from the way that cities are designed to how tax dollars are put to use in different neighborhoods. \u201cSuch models can align specific interventions that address community vulnerabilities to extreme heat while improving the calibration, coordination, and timing of regional responses,\u201d the study\u2019s authors wrote.<\/p>\n Other work from Shandas explores the uneven ways that people will be impacted by extreme heat, even within the same city. During a record-setting heat wave in 2021 in the Pacific Northwest, Shandas drew attention to those disparities<\/a> by demonstrating how one neighborhood east of downtown Portland, Oregon, was 25 degrees hotter than more affluent areas with a robust urban canopy of trees and greenery to cool things off.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe way we\u2019ve gone about building our city and the design of the roads, the buildings, the amount of green space\u2014that combined with people who often don\u2019t have easy ways to cool off, that comes together to increase the likelihood of deaths,\u201d Shandas told Portland\u2019s Willamette Week<\/em> in an interview.<\/p>\n Unfortunately, around the country, urban neighborhoods with the hottest temperatures are losing their trees and green spaces at a faster rate<\/a> than their cooler counterparts, according to another recent study from Shandas.<\/p>\nExtreme heat will take an uneven toll<\/h2>\n