With our oceans already warming from the burning of fossil fuels and human-caused climate change, El Ni\u00f1o adds even more heat. <\/p>\n
That means the climate pattern has the potential to amplify weather extremes, leading to prolonged droughts, severe floods, and more damaging forest fires. It could also disrupt fishers and lead to crop loss in certain regions of the world.<\/p>\n Though some have dubbed this year\u2019s climate pattern a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d NOAA meteorologists don\u2019t use<\/a> that term. Instead, they classify El Ni\u00f1os as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThere is a 63% chance that we\u2019re looking at a very strong El Ni\u00f1o during the November to January time period,\u201d Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service\u2019s Los Angeles office, said during a Thursday press conference.<\/p>\n \u201cThat could rank among the largest El Ni\u00f1o events in the historical record, going back to 1950,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is a climate phenomenon concerning above-average sea surface temperatures. Under normal conditions, warm waters over the equatorial Pacific get transported westward and are followed by areas of cooler water.<\/p>\n But during an El Ni\u00f1o, Cohen said, trade winds slacken, and that warm pool of water extends farther to the east. That causes the jet stream in our atmosphere to shift. Typically, this leads to wetter conditions across the Southern U.S. and drier-than-normal conditions farther north.<\/p>\n But there is a lot of variability with El Ni\u00f1os, experts warn\u2014and even with a \u201cvery strong\u201d or Super El Ni\u00f1o, that doesn\u2019t mean the same impact is expected everywhere. <\/p>\n Instead, an El Ni\u00f1o \u201cjust significantly tilts the odds\u201d toward certain weather events.<\/p>\n For an El Ni\u00f1o to officially form, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean must reach 0.5 degrees C\u00a0(0.9 degrees F) above average for a few months in a row.\u00a0In a \u201cvery strong\u201d or Super El Ni\u00f1o, sea surface temperatures climb 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) above average.<\/p>\n \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are already present at this point and expected to strengthen across the Northern Hemisphere over the next several months,\u201d Cohen said.<\/p>\n With that extreme warming, \u201cthe result could be stronger, more persistent impacts around the world in the form of droughts, floods, cyclones, extreme heat and more,\u201d according to the World Resources Institute (WRI)<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Warmer and \u201cerratic\u201d climate change conditions could combine with that Super El Ni\u00f1o. Already, our world\u2019s oceans hit a record high temperature in 2025, with the heat they store increasing 23 zettajoules\u2014a figure equivalent to more than 365 million atomic bombs.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,\u201d Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, the United Nations secretary-general, said in a video message earlier in June<\/a>. \u201cImpacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,\u201d he added.<\/p>\nWhat is El Ni\u00f1o, and what makes a “Super” El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n
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More floods, droughts, fires, and more<\/h2>\n