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Warm sea surface temperatures during the first week of June indicate the presence of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n NOAA<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n The FIFA World Cup matches began this week, but that is not the only thing with global implications in recent days. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that El Ni\u00f1o has formed. Here\u2019s what that means, and why forecasters believe it could be a potentially \u201csuper\u201d one.<\/p>\n \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o has developed in the tropical Pacific,” wrote a NOAA press release earlier this week announcing an El Nino Advisory. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o, the warm phase of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this fall,” the notice continued. NOAA forecasters and experts around the world say there is a 63% chance that the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Central Pacific will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above the neutral threshold.” For those of you who do not speak Celsius, that is 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. \u201cIf this threshold is surpassed, NOAA considers the event a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d the press release stated.<\/p>\n Neutral and El Ni\u00f1o conditions<\/span><\/p>\n NASA<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n That could be conservative. While some climate experts weeks ago cautioned that it was too early to be conclusive about the strength of this event, all signs indicate that the \u201chype\u201d may be warranted. El Ni\u00f1o is a part of a natural climate oscillation called ENSO. If temperatures are nearly 1.0 degree Fahrenheit above average or greater for consecutive months, then El Ni\u00f1o or the warm phase is declared. <\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a is the cool phase. The ENSO cycle <\/a>is related to a coupled relationship between winds, temperature, and pressure in the Pacific Ocean. The global models and indices used to diagnose and predict ENSO phases rely on an array of satellite, ocean, and atmospheric observations. Scientists have noted that global ocean observing systems<\/a> play an important role in monitoring El Ni\u00f1o, which has significant impacts on agriculture, national security, energy, and other societal activities.<\/p>\n Past El Ni\u00f1o events within the past 75 years.<\/span><\/p>\n NASA<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/section>\n Both phases have an impact on global weather patterns. That\u2019s the \u201cso what?\u201d According to NOAA typical impacts for the U.S. include:<\/p>\n \u201cDry regions of Peru, Chile, Mexico, and the southwestern United States are often deluged with rain and snow, and barren deserts have been known to explode in flowers,\u201d according to NASA\u2019s website<\/a>. \u201cWetter regions of the Brazilian Amazon and the northeastern United States often plunge into months-long droughts,\u201d it continued. Agricultural, fishing, and other ecosystem services can be disrupted by strong events.<\/p>\n Jet stream patterns and El Ni\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n NASA<\/small><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n Past \u201csuper\u201d El Ninos that exceeded maximum thresholds were observed in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016, respectively. \u201cIn the just-released April ENSO outlook from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, every one of the 20-plus model ensemble members is predicting moderate or strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions by mid-June,\u201d wrote<\/a> Bob Henson and Jeff Masters in Yale Climate Connections<\/em> several months ago. \u201cFor October, roughly half of the ECMWF ensemble is calling for sea surface temperatures in the main El Ni\u00f1o region (Ni\u00f1o3.4) to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average.\u201d Historically that threshold is considered the trigger for a Super El Ni\u00f1o, but I have not really seen a formal definition,\u201d they cautioned. <\/p>\n Well, it\u2019s here. Let\u2019s see how strong it actually gets.<\/p>\n Bulldozers scoop up debris, including downed palm trees, along the Los Angels river bed, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 1997 in Glendale, Calif., as the Army Corps of Engineers started clear the riverbed. The Corp of Engineers, along with the County of Los Angeles, is completing flood control preparations for El Nino, which includes the removal of accumulated sediment, vegetation and debris from the 95 flood control facilities along the Los Angeles River and flood channels across the county. (AP Photo\/Damian Dovarganes)<\/span><\/p>\nEl Ni\u00f1o Is Here<\/h2>\n
So What?<\/h2>\n
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