Published August 9, 2026 04:29AM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
As wildfires prompt\u00a0evacuations across the Pacific Northwest, and smoke blankets much of North America, some Americans are reportedly placing online bets \u00a0on how large the blazes will grow, when they\u2019ll be contained, and how much damage they\u2019ll leave behind.<\/p>\n
Lawmakers warn that gambling on wildfires\u00a0creates a dangerous incentive for arson.<\/p>\n
On August 3, nine U.S. senators including Alex Padilla and Amy Klobuchar\u00a0wrote a letter<\/a> to Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulatory body overseeing derivatives markets, pressing regulators to stop the growing online practice of gambling on wildfires. The senators argued that wagering on active wildfires could tempt people to interfere with firefighting efforts\u2014or even commit arson.<\/p>\n \u201cNo matter how small this chance is, it should never be tolerated,\u201d Oregon Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley, who co-signed the letter, told Outside<\/em>. \u201cThis falls under the same no-man\u2019s land for betting occupied by wars and assassinations.\u201d<\/p>\n The online prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both allow users to wager on a wide range of natural disasters. Outside<\/em> contacted both platforms for comment but did not receive a response.<\/p>\n Prediction markets are online platforms where users wager real money on the outcomes of future events such as elections, sporting events, and, increasingly, natural disasters. On sites like Polymarket, users bet on yes-or-no questions, such as whether a fire will reach a certain size or be contained by a specific date.<\/p>\n Winning bettors\u00a0are paid out when the market closes. Polymarket\u2019s main competitor, Kalshi, is legal in the U.S. but only lets users bet on whether natural disasters like earthquakes or hurricanes will happen, and it doesn\u2019t cover fires at all.<\/p>\n As of August 6, 2026, neither site has any active wildfire betting opportunities.<\/p>\n Wagering on wildfire gained attention in January 2025, when the\u00a0Palisades and Eaton fires tore through Los Angeles. As the fires raged, online bettors wagered on a wide range of outcomes, from the extent of the destruction to whether anyone would be arrested for arson. The fires killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 homes.<\/p>\n During those fires, the financial stakes for online bettors topped $1.2 million on Polymarket, according to Jamie Pietruska<\/a>, a history professor at Rutgers University. That\u2019s the most recent figure available, she told Outside<\/em>, because the markets closed once the fires were extinguished.<\/p>\n Until early August 2026, prediction market platform Wyldfyre.io<\/a> also allowed people to bet on wildfires. The website even published a slogan,\u00a0\u201cYou can\u2019t predict fire, but you can trade on it.\u201d It\u2019s since been shut down.<\/p>\n Wildfires have burned more than 630,000 acres in Washington this summer, while Oregon is having one of the worst fire seasons in its history, with more than two million acres burned.<\/a> California, which has largely avoided major fires so far in 2026, has sent firefighters and equipment to both states. Cosigners of the letter warn that allowing betting could incentivize arson and tempt bettors to interfere with firefighting operations. They also argue that it could encourage insider trading between those involved in firefighting efforts.<\/p>\nOnline Betting Poses Arson and Insider Trading Risks<\/h2>\n