A prediction market reported U.S. Rep. George Santos to federal prosecutors after he boasted he’d be going to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, then bet against his own attendance, according to a person familiar with the investigation.
Kalshi, the online prediction marketplace, referred Santos to the Department of Justice after detecting suspicious trades made by the former congressman ahead of Trump’s Feb. 24 speech, the person said. The person spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Kalshi also reported the trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal regulatory body that has vowed to crack down on insider trading in prediction marketplaces.
The Justice Department and the CFTC didn’t immediately respond Tuesday to inquiries from the AP.
Santos also did not respond to text messages or phone calls.
The referral was first reported by NPR. Santos told NPR that he wasn’t aware of the investigation. He declined to say whether he had a Kalshi account.
“I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no,” Santos told NPR.
The convicted ex-congressman had repeatedly discussed his intention to attend the State of the Union, which came just four months after he was granted clemency by Trump in a fraud case that led to his expulsion from the U.S. House.
On the eve of Trump’s speech, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%.
Then, minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. Immediately, several social media users accused him of running another scheme.
“Santos talking to his accountant and telling him to open his Kalshi account and bet all his money on No,” one user wrote, alongside a meme of Al Pacino counting money in the movie Scarface.
In March, Santos addressed the complaints on his podcast.
“I guess people lost money,” he said. “Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Santos, who won office as a Republican after inventing a bogus persona as a Wall Street dealmaker, was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024.
After serving just 84 days, he was ordered released by Trump, who called Santos a “rogue” but said he didn’t deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for voting Republican.
Prediction markets, including Kalshi and its chief rival Polymarket, have drawn scrutiny as their businesses have expanded — with some lawmakers urging the platforms to do more to guard against insider trading.
Both companies have said they are reporting suspicious trades to federal regulators. Some investigations have led to criminal charges. In April a soldier involved in the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was charged with using classified information to win more than $400,000 predicting the date of his capture on Polymarket.
In April, the Senate approved a bipartisan resolution to prevent its own members from using prediction markets.
—Jake Offenhartz, Associated Press
