Published October 16, 2026 01:51PM
You’ve probably heard about the weather phenomenon called Super El Niño, which climate scientists predict will impact winter weather. And if you’re a skier, this year’s Super El Niño could bring some pretty good news, with parts of the American West expected to get more snow than usual.
According to the 2026-27 winter forecast by AccuWeather, a U.S. weather prediction service, parts of the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, Wasatch Range, and Central Rockies could see above-average snowfall this season, with parts of the Southern Rockies also expected to get more snow than last winter (which, let’s be real, wouldn’t really be hard to do).
Meanwhile, much of the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest might not be so lucky.
AccuWeather’s lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok told Outside that California, Utah, and Colorado should all have favorable skiing conditions this winter, though California could experience more frequent storms and greater travel disruptions.
“The West definitely looks like a better bet for skiers hoping to find consistently good snow conditions this winter, largely because of how strong this El Niño is,” Pastelok said.
What Is a Super El Niño?
Pastelok told Outside that the term Super El Niño isn’t an official scientific classification. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) categorizes El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, depending on how much warmer than normal the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes. “Super” is simply a weatherperson’s way of saying “very strong.” And this year’s El Niño could be one for the record books.
Every few years, waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. That extra heat changes where air rises, clouds form and rain falls, which can alter weather patterns thousands of miles away.
One of the biggest changes involves the jet stream, a band of fast-moving winds high in the atmosphere that acts a bit like a highway for storms. During an El Niño winter, that highway typically shifts farther south, steering more storms and precipitation toward California and the southern United States. Meanwhile, northern states tend to experience warmer, drier conditions.
What makes this year’s El Niño super is the strength of the warming. In its October 8 outlook, NOAA estimated an 83 percent chance that this El Niño would surpass the strength of every event in its historical record dating back to 1950 during the October-to-December period.
“The stronger the El Niño gets, the more confident we feel that typical El Niño conditions will occur,” Pastelok told Outside.
Here’s where AccuWeather expects the snow to fall, and what that means for skiers.
California Will Get Snow, but Flooding Could Also Happen
California could see repeated bouts of heavy mountain snow as a series of Pacific storms, including atmospheric rivers, moves inland.
Pastelok expects several atmospheric rivers to arrive during the winter, specifically during the middle and latter parts of the season. Those storms could deliver feet of snow in the mountains, although heavy precipitation could also create flooding and landslide risks at lower elevations.
“There may be more snow in California,” Pastelok said, comparing the state’s outlook with Utah and Colorado. “But the downside for California is that it could be much stormier, making travel to ski resorts more difficult than in Utah or Colorado.”
Expect Deep Snow in Utah’s Wasatch Range
Utah’s Wasatch Range is also expected to benefit from an active southern storm track, with above-average snowfall possible across the region.
AccuWeather predicts Salt Lake City will receive between 50 and 65 inches of snow this winter, compared with just 3.7 inches last season, the city’s least snowy winter on record.
Those figures represent snowfall in the city rather than the nearby mountains, where accumulations are substantially greater. That’s good news for skiers hoping to carve turns at Park City, Snowbird, Alta, and the region’s other world-famous resorts.
In Colorado, an Early Start to Ski Season
Colorado and the Central and Southern Rockies could also see a significant improvement over last winter.
AccuWeather expects an early start to the snow season across the region, with additional storms arriving as winter progresses. By February, the Four Corners region is forecast to experience cooler-than-average temperatures and above-average precipitation, conditions that could support additional mountain snowfall.
Pastelok said Colorado might not receive as much snow as California this winter, but should still experience good skiing conditions.
Snow In the Nevada Desert
The Great Basin, which stretches across Nevada and portions of neighboring states, is another region where AccuWeather expects above-average snowfall.
The forecast favors an early start to the snow season across the region, although AccuWeather has not provided specific seasonal accumulation estimates for individual mountain areas.
Where Snowfall Could Disappoint
The snow outlook is less promising across much of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, where periods of snowfall could be interrupted by extended dry stretches.
In the Northeast, warmer temperatures and below-average snowfall could create particularly difficult conditions for lower-elevation ski areas.
Pastelok said smaller ski areas could struggle to maintain adequate snow coverage as repeated warm spells bring rain and ice.
“When people hear that, they assume it’s going to be a bad ski season,” Pastelok said. “And for many smaller, lower-elevation ski areas, that’s probably true. Warmer temperatures, rain and ice are going to make it difficult to keep snow on the slopes.”
But higher-elevation resorts in northern Vermont and New Hampshire could fare better, and the region may still experience significant snowstorms in late January or February.
He added that three previous Super El Niño winters brought major snowstorms to the Northeast in late January or early February, potentially offering skiers some relief after an otherwise disappointing season.
“The season could start out poorly, but a big snowstorm in late January or February could still give skiers a good weekend on the slopes,” he said.
How Much Can Skiers Trust the Forecast?
Before booking a weeklong ski vacation based on the forecast, there’s one thing worth keeping in mind, Pastelok said. Seasonal snowfall predictions are better at identifying broad weather patterns than predicting conditions at a particular mountain on a particular date.
Pastelok said long-range forecasters use historical weather patterns and current atmospheric conditions to identify which regions are most likely to experience active storm periods. But even an exceptionally strong El Niño can throw forecasters a curveball.
For example, Pastelok said that during the powerful El Niño of 2015-16, the jet stream shifted farther north than expected, leaving Southern California and the Four Corners region, including Colorado, with less snow than forecasters had anticipated.
And even when the storms do arrive, more precipitation doesn’t necessarily mean more snow. If temperatures are warm enough, it could fall as rain instead.
AccuWeather plans to update its winter forecast in mid-November, Pastelok said.
While a seasonal forecast might help skiers decide which part of the country to visit, figuring out exactly when to book that trip is another matter.
“If you’re asking me, should I go on a snow trip on February 2 because we’re going to get a lot of snow right before that?” Pastelok said. “That’s hard for me to tell you right now.”
